
October 24, 2024 - Volume 2 Issue 10
DOI: 10.61927/igmin259
29958067
ISSN
858
SCIENCE
gas (CO
2
) will allow energy transport to higher altitudes. The
highest altitude where there is enough thin gas to maintain
radiation is the region of the atmosphere that mainly radiates
energy outward to space. This is illustrated on the left side
of Figure 5. Figure 5 was created here to illustrate how the
predominant energy transfer mechanisms gradually change
to IR radiation at higher altitudes, and the presence of CO
2
carries the IR radiation to higher altitudes.
If the CO
2
content of the atmosphere is increased, there
will be a higher concentration of CO
2
molecules in the upper
atmosphere (at the same density), and IR radiant energy low
will persist up to a higher altitude. The region that radiates
to space will be at higher altitudes (where it is colder) and
by the radiation law, the Earth will not be able to radiate as
much energy per unit time. The Earth and the atmosphere will
warm until the region of emission is warm enough to radiate
all the solar input to Earth out to space. This is illustrated on
the right side of Figure 5.
As Lindzen pointed out, the lower atmosphere is opaque
to IR radiation, and the surface of the Earth loses heat by
convection, particularly cumulonimbus towers in the tropics
[10]. At higher altitudes, the density decreases signiicantly,
and IR transmission becomes the dominant means of energy
transfer. This region of the atmosphere can radiate energy
from the Earth to space. So, there is a lower atmosphere in
which energy is transferred mainly by convection, topped by
a higher atmosphere with decreasing density with altitude,
where IR transmission gradually becomes the main means of
energy transfer. The Earth loses energy by radiating from this
upper level.
Serious analysts of the current greenhouse gas effect agree
that warming is mainly due to the increased CO
2
extending the
region of radiative energy transfer in the upper atmosphere
to higher altitudes, resulting in the emission of energy from a
higher altitude where it is cooler [7,9]. The “thermal blanket”
imposed by a nearly IR-opaque lower atmosphere only
contributes about 10% to the current greenhouse gas effect [7].
Author’s perspective and future research directions
It is widely believed that greenhouse gases warm the Earth
via an IR radiation “thermal blanket”. Yet, as we have shown,
the addition of more CO
2
to the atmosphere at present with
a CO
2
concentration > 400 ppm does not produce signiicant
warming by thickening the blanket. Instead, analysis indicates
that adding CO
2
to the present atmosphere raises the altitude
where the Earth radiates to space and that is the source of the
current greenhouse effect. It is my experience that > 99% of
all discussions of the greenhouse effect miss this important
point, and I suspect that even most climate scientists don’t
understand this. We have a situation where the majority of the
world believes that the greenhouse gas effect is warming the
world, and this poses a threat to humanity. The U.N. and many
of the world’s nations have taken steps at great cost and risk
to reduce future CO
2
emissions, yet they fail to understand the
underlying mechanism of the current greenhouse effect. The
proper understanding of the current greenhouse effect rests
on a few published papers [7,9,10]. These analyses need to
be expanded and developed further, and promulgated in the
literature, along with a more comprehensive understanding of
how factors other than greenhouse gases affect climate change.
Our policies should be based on a more solid foundation of
understanding of the underlying physics.
As the 21
st
century progresses, the Earth will likely warm
further – primarily dependent on the levels of future CO
2
emissions, but other factors also enter into the total picture
(land use, solar variations, ocean currents, volcanoes, etc.).
Future energy demand will increase signiicantly and the
world will try to reduce emissions through expanded use of
renewable sources. Since the U.N. baseline year of 2015, global
annual CO
2
emissions increased by about 6% despite the
expansion of renewable energy usage. The people of the Earth
will face a long, dificult challenge to reduce CO
2
emissions in
the 21
st
century. The global average temperature will rise as
cumulative emissions increase [11]. Expanded use of nuclear
power and consumption of natural gas will be necessary but
probably not suficient. Natural gas should be a vital part of
any plan to transition to low emissions since it emits 2H
2
O
for each CO
2
when it is burned. Yet, the Internet is rife with
reports on US President Biden’s “War on Natural Gas” – a giant
step backward in the attempt to reduce global warming.
Finally, a major unknown in the matter of climate change is
the question of what are the impacts on human life at any level
Figure 5: Qualitative sketch to show radiation is dominant at the highest altitude.
By adding CO2 to the atmosphere, radiative energy transport is carried to a higher
altitude where it is colder, reducing the radiant power emitted by the upper
atmosphere.